Mark Warner Hangs On to Slim Senate Lead in Virginia

A Virginia electorate angry at President Obama made its displeasure known on Tuesday, and Mark Warner, the state’s popular former governor and current Democratic senator, was holding on to a slim lead over his Republican opponent early Wednesday.

With 99 percent of the vote counted, Mr. Warner was leading Ed Gillespie, a first-time Republican candidate, by just slightly more than 12,000 votes out of more than two million cast.

That did not stop Mr. Warner from claiming victory just after midnight on Tuesday, but Mr. Gillespie may be able to request a recount as unofficial totals showed that less than one percentage point separated the votes of the two candidates.

For most of the campaign, professional election-watchers listed Mr. Warner as among the most secure Democratic incumbents in the country.

But voters in the commonwealth had other ideas. Mr. Gillespie, a former counselor to Republican presidents and a former lobbyist in Washington, led early in the vote counting and did not lose traction until late Tuesday, when Democratic precincts in the Northern Virginia suburbs were counted.

“He ran on solving tough problems in the Senate, and that’s not super sexy for the base,” said Ellen Qualls, who served as Mr. Warner’s communications director in the governor’s mansion. Ms. Qualls said she expected Mr. Warner to prevail in the end.

“A win is a win,” she said. “And he will remain a legitimate deal maker in the Senate.”

Even if Mr. Warner ultimately serves a second term in the Senate, he will be one of the midterm election’s prime examples that the country’s national dislike of Washington incumbents can pose a threat for anyone.

During four years as governor and six years in the Senate, Mr. Warner carefully cultivated a moderate image in a state where conservatives still dominate through a wide portion of rural areas. In his race for governor, Mr. Warner had proudly played up his support of gun rights and campaigned in the state’s conservative coal country.

But he also sought to court the rapidly growing liberal suburbs of Northern Virginia, around Washington. A former technology investor who made a fortune investing early in cellphones, Mr. Warner was seen as an easy fit for the wealthy suburbanites, many of whom work for the government and military contractors.

Mr. Gillespie attacked Mr. Warner’s credentials as a middle-of-the-road politician, saying the incumbent had been changed by Washington’s highly partisan politics. The Gillespie campaign repeatedly broadcast television ads seeking to tie Mr. Warner to Mr. Obama’s policies.

“Ed ran a brilliant campaign, despite being heavily outspent,” said Chris LaCivita, a longtime Republican operative who has worked on statewide Republican races in Virginia for years. He said Mr. Gillespie benefited from “the president’s unpopularity in a state he won twice.”

For Mr. Warner, the electoral scare was a rare misstep for a candidate who once considered parlaying his credentials as a business executive into a presidential campaign. He considered a run in the 2008 race but declined when Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama moved to the front of the pack.

Mr. Warner’s close call this year also raises new questions about the changing electorate in Virginia, which once was reliably Republican in presidential contests but has recently become a swing state.

Mr. Obama won Virginia in 2008 and 2012, largely on the strength of women and minorities in the northern suburbs. In recent years, Democrats have begun viewing the state as a reliable source of votes in their column.

But Mr. Warner proves that Virginia — with its proximity to Washington and its reliance on military contracts and government spending — is also highly sensitive to the national frustrations with those who live inside the Capital Beltway.